V2.1 · 90 countries · May 2026

Whether states are
working

Not just whether they are powerful. Not just whether they are free. Whether the relationship between institutions and citizens is functional, legitimate — and durable. TrustGap measures it across three dimensions, 90 countries, and down to UK council level.

90
Countries across 10 groups
3
Tiers: Trust · Power · Resilience
318
English councils in the UK pilot
14+
Primary international sources
The Framework

Three tiers. One picture.

Most indices measure one dimension at a time. TrustGap combines internal legitimacy, external strategic position, and a synthesised resilience classification into a single diagnostic framework — the only instrument that does all three.

Tier 1 · Published
Trust Health

How well institutions function, and how much citizens trust them. Produces a Structural Score, Relational Score, Trust Gap, and Quadrant classification for each country.

8 sub-indicators per country
Quadrant classification
Migration risk flag
ACP for authoritarian states
Tier 2 · Published
Strategic Position

How much power a state projects versus absorbs. Power Score against Exposure Score, producing a Net Strategic Position that contextualises the Trust Health picture.

Military, economic, soft power
Trade, energy, supply chain risk
Geopolitical exposure index
Sources: IMF, SIPRI, Lowy, IEA
Tier 3 · Published
Resilience Band

The synthesis output. Tiers 1 and 2 combined into a single Resilience Band classification — from High Resilience to Systemically Vulnerable — for each of 90 countries.

Six Resilience Bands
High Resilience → Systemically Vulnerable
Decision-support output
Available in custom briefings
The Core Idea

What is the Trust Gap?

Headline finding — Lithuania (EU dataset)
Structural Score 77.8
Relational Score 46.4
Trust Gap: +31.4 points. Largest gap in the combined 90-country dataset. Strong institutions, very low trust. Migration risk flag active.
Also notable
UAE +44.6 — highest Trust Gap globally. Strong structural capacity, suppressed relational scores. ACP Totalitarian.
UK +21.9 — Efficient But Distant, migration risk active. WGI Political Stability at all-time low.
India −14.0 — largest negative gap. Citizens trust institutions more than their performance warrants.
Two scores, one gap
Every country receives a Structural Score — how well institutions function — and a Relational Score — how much citizens trust them. The Trust Gap is the distance between the two. Most indices measure one dimension. We measure both, and the space between them.
Why the gap matters more than either score
A country with strong institutions and low public trust is unstable in a specific, predictable way. The institutions may be capable — but they lack legitimacy. That combination has historically preceded democratic backsliding and political volatility. The gap is the signal that other indices miss.
A migration risk, not just a number
Any country with a Trust Gap exceeding 20 points is flagged for quadrant migration risk — the risk of moving to a more precarious classification. 26 of 90 countries currently carry the flag, including Germany, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom.

Selected scores

🇬🇧
United Kingdom
Efficient But Distant ⚠
73.0
Structural
51.1
Relational
🇱🇹
Lithuania
Efficient But Distant ⚠
77.8
Structural
46.4
Relational
🇦🇪
UAE
Efficient But Distant ⚠
76.0
Structural
31.4
Relational
🇫🇮
Finland
Stable Democracy
86.2
Structural
68.2
Relational
🇺🇸
United States
Polarised Democracy
61.7
Structural
46.3
Relational
Sub-national · UK Pilot

The Trust Gap at council level

The same framework that measures trust and legitimacy for 90 countries has been applied to 318 English local authorities — measuring financial governance, service delivery, planning performance, and ombudsman compliance.

This is the Local Council Monitor: a proof-of-concept sub-national layer, and an invitation. The methodology is portable. If you want to apply it in another country, we'd like to hear from you.

Sample council scores · May 2026
Birmingham
52 Weak
Westminster
79 Strong
Thurrock
18 Fragile
Manchester
71 Strong
318 English councils scored · May 2026 baseline
Classification

Four quadrants

Every country is assigned to one of four quadrants based on where its Structural and Relational scores fall. Higher structural scores sit to the right; higher relational scores sit toward the top.

Relational Score ↑ Higher trust
High trust · Low capacity
Trustful But Fragile
Trust outpacing delivery
Structural <65 · Relational ≥65
Citizens trust institutions more than objective performance warrants — often driven by cultural deference, information gaps, or political identity. Fragile because trust can collapse rapidly when expectations are unmet. No country in the current 90-country dataset occupies this position.
High trust · High capacity
Stable Democracy
Functioning and trusted
Structural ≥65 · Relational ≥65
Institutions work and citizens trust them. The most durable classification — internal legitimacy is high on both dimensions. Only Denmark, Finland, Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, Luxembourg, Singapore, and New Zealand hold this classification across 90 countries.
Low trust · Low capacity
Polarised Democracy
Pressure on both axes
Structural <65 · Relational <65
Both institutional performance and public trust are under strain. Political volatility is elevated and reform requires addressing both dimensions simultaneously. Where Structural falls below 50 AND Relational below 50, the country is additionally classified as a Fragile State.
Low trust · High capacity
Efficient But Distant
Capacity without consent
Structural ≥65 · Relational <65
Institutions outperform the trust placed in them. The most common classification — the majority of western democracies including the UK, Germany, Japan, and Australia sit here. The gap between structural capacity and relational legitimacy is the core risk signal.
Relational 65
Structural 65
Higher capacity → Structural Score
Data is free. Services are not.

What we offer

All TrustGap index data is freely available. The analysis, interpretation, and application of that data is where we work with partners, policymakers, journalists, and institutions.

Briefings
Country or thematic reports with full sub-indicator analysis, peer comparison, key signals, and scored recommendations.
Tier 2+3
Full three-tier analysis: Trust Health + Strategic Position + Resilience Band. Designed for institutional, investment, and policy audiences.
Custom
Custom assessment runs, data licensing, consulting, and methodology partnerships for research institutions and governments.
From the index · V2.1 · May 2026
Five findings that will not surprise you — and one that will.
Only 8 of 90 countries qualify as Stable Democracies — where institutions work and citizens trust them.
26 countries carry a migration risk flag — a Trust Gap exceeding 20 points. Most are western democracies.
The average Trust Gap across all 90 countries is +15.3 points. The median is +16.4.
20 countries have triggered the Authoritarian Context Protocol, with relational scores adjusted for state suppression of trust signals.
The surprise: India has a negative Trust Gap of −14.0. Citizens trust their institutions considerably more than their objective performance warrants — a pattern that history suggests is brittle.
Datasets

90 countries · 10 groups

Each group is a named, dated scoring run applied to a defined cohort. All use the same methodology and primary sources. Click any group to explore its countries.

Reports, comparison data, and briefings available on request
G8 · May 2026
G8
8 countries · Trust Health — Tier 1

The Group of Seven plus Russia. The founding cohort of the Trust Gap framework and the reference point against which all other groups are calibrated.

G20 · May 2026
G20
19 countries · Trust Health — Tier 1

All 19 G20 members — spanning Asia-Pacific, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. Includes some of the world's largest economies and most significant political actors.

European Union · May 2026
European Union
27 countries · Trust Health — Tier 1

All 27 EU member states. The most institutionally integrated grouping in the dataset, with a correspondingly wide spread of outcomes — from the Nordic Stable Democracies to the Balkan Fragile States.

Council of Europe · May 2026
Council of Europe
43 countries · Trust Health — Tier 1

Non-EU European states and observers, including the Western Balkans, the South Caucasus, and Ukraine. A group at widely varying stages of institutional development and under significant external pressure.

Gulf Cooperation Council · May 2026
Gulf Cooperation Council
6 countries · Trust Health — Tier 1

The five GCC members outside the G20. High structural scores driven by state capacity and resource wealth, but consistently very low relational scores and widespread ACP designation.

BRICS+ · May 2026
BRICS+
7 countries · Trust Health — Tier 1

All 7 BRICS+ members — Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, and Ethiopia. Iran has observer status. The group spans G20 powers and fragile states across Africa and the Middle East.

ASEAN · May 2026
ASEAN
10 countries · Trust Health — Tier 1

All 10 ASEAN members including Indonesia (G20). A highly varied group ranging from Singapore's Stable Democracy to Myanmar's deeply fragile authoritarian classification.

Latin America · May 2026
Latin America
9 countries · Trust Health — Tier 1

Nine Latin American countries including G20 members Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico, alongside Chile, Colombia, Peru, Bolivia, Ecuador, and Venezuela.

Africa · May 2026
Africa
9 countries · Trust Health — Tier 1

Nine African countries including G20 member South Africa and BRICS+ members Egypt and Ethiopia, alongside Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana, Morocco, Tunisia, and Zimbabwe.

Asia-Pacific · May 2026
Asia-Pacific
4 countries · Trust Health — Tier 1

Four Asia-Pacific countries outside the G20 and ASEAN datasets. New Zealand is the standout Stable Democracy; Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Kazakhstan all carry ACP designation.

Sub-national
Local Council Monitor · England · May 2026
Local Government
318 English councils · Financial · Services · LGO

The Trust Gap framework applied to English local authorities. Financial governance, service delivery, and LGO ombudsman signal scored against statutory sources. May 2026 baseline — 56 changed administrations including 11 Reform UK gains.

Trust Health — Tier 1 · May 2026

All Countries

90 countries across 10 groups · 90 countries shown

Reports, comparison data, and briefings available on request
View:
Group:
Filter:
Country Group StructuralLabel RelationalLabel Trust Gap Quadrant ACP Detail
G8 G20
77.8
Strong
55.2
Weak +22.6 ⚠ Efficient But Distant View →
G8 G20 EU CoE
73.2
Strong
53.7
Weak +19.5 Efficient But Distant View →
G8 G20
80.0
Exceptional
50.4
Weak +29.6 ⚠ Efficient But Distant View →
G8 G20 EU CoE
62.7
Moderate
46.7
Critical +16.0 Polarised Democracy View →
G8 G20
61.7
Moderate
46.3
Critical +15.4 Polarised Democracy View →
G8 G20 EU CoE
60.4
Moderate
48.8
Critical +11.6 Polarised Democracy View →
G8 G20
28.9
Fragile
25.6
Fragile +3.3 Fragile State ACP · Totalitarian
G20
81.5
Exceptional
61.1
Moderate +20.4 ⚠ Efficient But Distant View →
G20 LatAm
47.6
Critical
47.3
Critical +0.3 Fragile State View →
G20 BRICS+ LatAm
42.0
Critical
47.1
Critical -5.1 Fragile State View →
G20 BRICS+
53.8
Weak
41.8
Critical +12.0 Polarised Democracy ACP · Totalitarian
G20 BRICS+
43.3
Critical
57.3
Weak -14.0 Polarised Democracy View →
G20 ASEAN
52.2
Weak
64.0
Moderate -11.8 Polarised Democracy View →
G20 LatAm
35.5
Fragile
45.8
Critical -10.3 Fragile State View →
G20 GCC
67.8
Moderate
41.8
Critical +26.0 ⚠ Efficient But Distant ACP · Totalitarian
G20 BRICS+ Africa
43.2
Critical
49.7
Critical -6.5 Fragile State View →
G20
73.2
Strong
46.3
Critical +26.9 ⚠ Efficient But Distant View →
G8 G20 CoE
43.4
Critical
42.4
Critical +1.0 Fragile State ACP · Constrained
G8 G20 CoE
73.0
Strong
51.1
Weak +21.9 ⚠ Efficient But Distant View →
EU CoE
76.8
Strong
55.4
Weak +21.4 ⚠ Efficient But Distant View →
EU CoE
69.1
Moderate
53.4
Weak +15.7 Efficient But Distant View →
EU CoE
79.8
Strong
57.3
Weak +22.5 ⚠ Efficient But Distant View →
EU CoE
84.4
Exceptional
67.5
Moderate +16.9 Stable Democracy View →
EU CoE
78.4
Strong
60.7
Moderate +17.7 Efficient But Distant View →
EU CoE
70.8
Strong
49.5
Critical +21.3 ⚠ Efficient But Distant View →
EU CoE
64.1
Moderate
48.7
Critical +15.4 Polarised Democracy View →
EU CoE
81.9
Exceptional
59.6
Weak +22.3 ⚠ Efficient But Distant View →
EU CoE
66.4
Moderate
47.1
Critical +19.3 Efficient But Distant View →
EU CoE
86.4
Exceptional
68.2
Moderate +18.2 Stable Democracy View →
EU CoE
78.7
Strong
60.5
Moderate +18.2 Efficient But Distant View →
EU CoE
86.2
Exceptional
68.2
Moderate +18.0 Stable Democracy View →
EU CoE
71.0
Strong
48.7
Critical +22.3 ⚠ Efficient But Distant View →
EU CoE
77.8
Strong
46.4
Critical +31.4 ⚠ Efficient But Distant View →
EU CoE
67.9
Moderate
52.6
Weak +15.3 Efficient But Distant View →
EU CoE
50.4
Weak
35.4
Fragile +15.0 Polarised Democracy View →
EU CoE
65.6
Moderate
46.6
Critical +19.0 Efficient But Distant View →
EU CoE
78.0
Strong
48.2
Critical +29.8 ⚠ Efficient But Distant View →
EU CoE
59.2
Weak
40.2
Critical +19.0 Polarised Democracy View →
EU CoE
61.5
Moderate
43.1
Critical +18.4 Polarised Democracy View →
EU CoE
68.7
Moderate
47.2
Critical +21.5 ⚠ Efficient But Distant View →
EU CoE
53.9
Weak
40.1
Critical +13.8 Polarised Democracy View →
EU CoE
66.8
Moderate
42.3
Critical +24.5 ⚠ Efficient But Distant View →
EU CoE
74.9
Strong
51.4
Weak +23.5 ⚠ Efficient But Distant View →
CoE
84.5
Exceptional
72.0
Strong +12.5 Stable Democracy View →
CoE
84.2
Exceptional
68.0
Moderate +16.2 Stable Democracy View →
CoE
83.8
Exceptional
66.6
Moderate +17.2 Stable Democracy View →
CoE
53.0
Weak
44.9
Critical +8.1 Polarised Democracy View →
CoE
52.9
Weak
37.7
Fragile +15.2 Polarised Democracy View →
CoE
60.3
Moderate
43.4
Critical +16.9 Polarised Democracy View →
CoE
56.0
Weak
39.0
Fragile +17.0 Polarised Democracy View →
CoE
56.5
Weak
40.1
Critical +16.4 Polarised Democracy View →
CoE
49.7
Critical
38.2
Fragile +11.5 Fragile State View →
CoE
53.6
Weak
41.5
Critical +12.1 Polarised Democracy View →
CoE
46.4
Critical
38.4
Fragile +8.0 Fragile State View →
CoE
41.5
Critical
32.5
Fragile +9.0 Fragile State View →
CoE
48.0
Critical
28.8
Fragile +19.2 Fragile State ACP · Totalitarian
CoE
45.7
Critical
56.9
Weak -11.2 Polarised Democracy View →
GCC
59.8
Weak
27.1
Fragile +32.7 ⚠ Polarised Democracy ACP · Totalitarian
GCC
60.3
Moderate
52.8
Weak +7.5 Polarised Democracy View →
GCC
67.3
Moderate
41.1
Critical +26.2 ⚠ Efficient But Distant ACP · Severely Constrained
GCC
73.2
Strong
54.9
Weak +18.3 Efficient But Distant View →
GCC
76.0
Strong
31.4
Fragile +44.6 ⚠ Efficient But Distant ACP · Totalitarian
BRICS+ Africa
41.2
Critical
23.6
Fragile +17.6 Fragile State ACP · Totalitarian
BRICS+ Africa
34.3
Fragile
26.0
Fragile +8.3 Fragile State ACP · Severely Constrained
BRICS+
32.5
Fragile
11.5
Fragile +21.0 ⚠ Fragile State ACP · Totalitarian
ASEAN
87.3
Exceptional
66.0
Moderate +21.3 ⚠ Stable Democracy View →
ASEAN
58.3
Weak
42.5
Critical +15.8 Polarised Democracy ACP · Severely Constrained
ASEAN
47.3
Critical
48.0
Critical -0.7 Fragile State View →
ASEAN
65.2
Moderate
47.8
Critical +17.4 Efficient But Distant View →
ASEAN
45.0
Critical
54.6
Weak -9.6 Polarised Democracy View →
ASEAN
44.7
Critical
30.7
Fragile +14.0 Fragile State ACP · Totalitarian
ASEAN
21.9
Fragile
7.3
Fragile +14.6 Fragile State ACP · Totalitarian
ASEAN
46.8
Critical
28.2
Fragile +18.6 Fragile State ACP · Totalitarian
ASEAN
74.3
Strong
33.2
Fragile +41.1 ⚠ Efficient But Distant ACP · Totalitarian
LatAm
69.7
Moderate
44.5
Critical +25.2 ⚠ Efficient But Distant View →
LatAm
43.2
Critical
31.9
Fragile +11.3 Fragile State View →
LatAm
45.1
Critical
31.7
Fragile +13.4 Fragile State View →
LatAm
39.2
Fragile
37.2
Fragile +2.0 Fragile State View →
LatAm
40.5
Critical
32.4
Fragile +8.1 Fragile State View →
LatAm
24.3
Fragile
3.9
Fragile +20.4 ⚠ Fragile State ACP · Totalitarian
Africa
35.6
Fragile
32.4
Fragile +3.2 Fragile State View →
Africa
42.1
Critical
39.2
Fragile +2.9 Fragile State View →
Africa
53.2
Weak
49.6
Critical +3.6 Polarised Democracy View →
Africa
47.8
Critical
41.8
Critical +6.0 Fragile State View →
Africa
46.2
Critical
33.9
Fragile +12.3 Fragile State View →
Africa
30.0
Fragile
29.8
Fragile +0.2 Fragile State View →
AsiaPac
86.5
Exceptional
66.4
Moderate +20.1 ⚠ Stable Democracy View →
AsiaPac
33.2
Fragile
24.4
Fragile +8.8 Fragile State ACP · Constrained
AsiaPac
34.9
Fragile
27.7
Fragile +7.2 Fragile State ACP · Constrained
AsiaPac
51.8
Weak
26.6
Fragile +25.2 ⚠ Polarised Democracy ACP · Totalitarian
Score labels: Exceptional (80–100) · Strong (70–79) · Moderate (60–69) · Weak (50–59) · Critical (40–49) · Fragile (below 40)  ·  Trust Gap >20 pts — migration risk flag active  ·  ACP Authoritarian Context Protocol triggered
Methodology

How it works

A formula-driven framework. Every score is traceable to a named primary source, a specific metric, and an explicit calculation. No black boxes.

Reports, comparison data, and briefings available on request
Overview
Structural Pillar
Relational Pillar
Classification
Data

Architecture

The index measures the internal legitimacy of a state across two equally weighted pillars: Structural (how institutions function) and Relational (how much citizens trust them). Each pillar is 50% of the overall score.

Each pillar contains four sub-indicators, weighted equally at 25% within the pillar. Each sub-indicator is built from three metrics, equally weighted and normalised to a 0–100 scale. The headline output is the Trust Gap — the difference between the two pillar scores — not a single composite number.

Score labels

Exceptional
80–100
Strong
70–79
Moderate
60–69
Weak
50–59
Critical
40–49
Fragile
Below 40

Structural Pillar

Four sub-indicators measuring how well institutions function, independent of how citizens feel about them.

Structural · Sub-1
Governance Effectiveness
World Bank WGI Government Effectiveness + Regulatory Quality percentile ranks, averaged.
Structural · Sub-2
Political Stability
World Bank WGI Political Stability and Absence of Violence. A recency adjustment of −5 to −10 applies where documented instability is not yet reflected in WGI data (maximum −10, must be cited).
Structural · Sub-3
Rule of Law / Corruption
WJP Rule of Law Index (×100) averaged with TI Corruption Perceptions Index. CPI used exactly as published — no rounding. Year-on-year CPI decline is flagged as a diagnostic signal.
Structural · Sub-4
Economic Mobility
WEF Social Mobility Index (with −7 outcome adjustment applied universally) + World Bank Gini coefficient (inverted) + OECD Education Access. All three averaged.

Relational Pillar

Four sub-indicators measuring how much citizens trust the state and one another, independent of how well institutions actually perform.

Relational · Sub-5
Trust in Government
Edelman Trust Barometer government trust score, exact figure. Where Edelman is unavailable, a defined fallback hierarchy applies: independent diaspora surveys → independent national surveys → WVS Wave data → state-conducted surveys.
Relational · Sub-6
Social Cohesion & Belonging
Bertelsmann Social Cohesion Radar + WVS Interpersonal Trust + V-Dem Polarisation Index (inverted). All three averaged.
Relational · Sub-7
Media Trust & Information Health
Reuters Institute Digital News Report (% trust most news) + RSF Press Freedom Index (converted: 100 − RSF note score) + Edelman Media Trust score. All three averaged.
Relational · Sub-8
Civic Participation & Democracy
International IDEA Voter Turnout + OECD/Gallup Democracy Satisfaction + V-Dem Civil Society score. All three averaged.
Authoritarian Context Protocol
Where a country's V-Dem Liberal Democracy Index score falls below 0.30 AND its RSF Press Freedom rank is 130/180 or worse, the Authoritarian Context Protocol is triggered. Both conditions must be confirmed. The protocol applies downward adjustments to the relational sub-indicators — ranging from −10 (Constrained) to −20 (Totalitarian) — to correct for state suppression of trust signals. In the current dataset, ACP was triggered for four G20 members: Russia and China (Totalitarian), Saudi Arabia (Totalitarian), and Türkiye (Constrained). No EU member states triggered the protocol.

Quadrant classification

Every country is assigned to one of four quadrants based on its final Structural and Relational scores.

Stable Democracy
Structural ≥65 AND Relational ≥65. Both dimensions functioning. Denmark and Finland are the only two countries in the combined 43-country dataset to hold this classification.
Efficient But Distant
Structural ≥65 AND Relational <65. The dominant classification across both datasets — 24 of 43 countries. Institutional capacity exceeds public trust.
Polarised Democracy
Structural <65 AND Relational <65. Both dimensions under pressure. Nine countries across both datasets — including France, USA, Italy, and four EU members.
Fragile State
Structural <50 AND Relational <50. Critical failure across both pillars. Eight countries across the combined dataset — seven G20 members and Bulgaria.

Migration risk flag: Any country with a Trust Gap exceeding 20 points is flagged regardless of current quadrant. In the combined dataset, 17 of 43 countries carry the flag — including Lithuania at +31.4, the largest gap across both cohorts.

Primary data sources

SourceUsed forPillar
World Bank — Worldwide Governance IndicatorsGovernment Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Political StabilityStructural
Transparency International — CPIRule of Law / Corruption sub-indicatorStructural
World Justice Project — Rule of Law IndexRule of Law / Corruption sub-indicatorStructural
WEF Global Social Mobility IndexEconomic Mobility (−7 outcome adjustment applied)Structural
World Bank — World Development IndicatorsGini coefficient (inverted)Structural
OECD Education at a GlanceEducation access in Economic MobilityStructural
Edelman Trust BarometerGovernment trust and Media trust (exact figures)Relational
Bertelsmann Stiftung — Social Cohesion RadarSocial Cohesion sub-indicatorRelational
World Values SurveyInterpersonal trust in Social CohesionRelational
V-Dem — Varieties of DemocracyPolarisation index, Liberal Democracy Index, Civil Society scoreRelational
Reuters Institute Digital News ReportNews trust (% trust most news)Relational
RSF — Press Freedom IndexPress freedom (converted: 100 − note score)Relational
International IDEA — Voter Turnout DatabaseVoter turnout in Civic ParticipationRelational
OECD / Gallup — Democracy SatisfactionDemocracy satisfaction in Civic ParticipationRelational
About

Why the Trust Gap?

Most national indices measure either institutions or sentiment. We measure both — and the distance between them. That distance is the signal.

Reports, comparison data, and briefings available on request

The problem we're solving

Nations can have highly functional institutions and deeply mistrustful citizens. Standard indices capture one dimension at a time — governance scores, democracy rankings, press freedom indices. None cross-reference institutional capacity with public legitimacy to produce a single diagnostic picture.

The Trust Gap was designed to fill that space. The headline finding is never just a score — it is the distance between what a state can do and what its citizens believe it will do. That distance is where fragility lives, and where the most important policy questions sit.

The framework is built on primary international data, explicit formulas, and full audit trails. Every number is traceable. Every adjustment is documented. Across 90 countries now scored, only two hold Stable Democracy classification, and the average Trust Gap across the combined dataset exceeds 17 points.

Design principles

📐
Formula-first
Every score derives from an explicit, published formula. No black boxes, no analyst discretion outside defined parameters.
🔍
Source-pinned
Every metric is tied to a named primary source, a specific indicator, and a data year. Reproducible by design.
⚖️
Transparent adjustments
Where adjustments are applied, every one is documented with its rationale, magnitude, and source citation.
🔄
Version-controlled
Framework changes are tracked by version. Historical scores remain valid under the version that produced them.

The three tiers

The framework is designed in three tiers. Version 2.1 publishes Tier 1. Tiers 2 and 3 are in development.

Tier 1 — Published
Trust Health
Measures the internal legitimacy of a state. How well do institutions function, and how much do citizens trust them? Produces a Structural Score, Relational Score, Trust Gap, and Quadrant classification. Covers all 90 countries in the current dataset.
Tier 2 — Published
Strategic Position
Measures a state's relationship with the external world. How much influence does it project versus absorb? Produces a Power Score, Exposure Score, and Net Strategic Position. Covers military capability, economic scale, soft power, diplomatic reach, trade dependence, and geopolitical vulnerability. Available in custom briefings.
Tier 3 — Published
Resilience Band
Synthesises Tier 1 and Tier 2 into a single diagnostic output. How durable is this country when external pressure meets internal stress? Produces one of six Resilience Band classifications — from High Resilience to Systemically Vulnerable. Available in custom briefings.

Version history

V2.1
May 2026 — first published version. G20 and EU Trust Health datasets released. 90 countries scored. V2.1 covers Tier 1 only — Tier 2 (Strategic Position) and Tier 3 (Resilience Band) are in development and will be published in a future release.
V2.0
March 2026 — internal development. Trust Gap established as the headline output. Authoritarian Context Protocol codified. Tier 2 and Tier 3 methodology developed but not published. UK used as a full worked example across all three tiers.
V1.0
2025 — internal development. Framework architecture built and tested. Trust Health methodology established across eight sub-indicators and 24 metrics. G8 countries used as the calibration cohort. No public release.

Who it's for

The Trust Health index speaks to domestic policymakers, civil society organisations, reform advocates, researchers, and anyone who needs to understand the internal legitimacy of a state over time.

Tier 2 (Strategic Position) and Tier 3 (Resilience Band) are in development and will extend the framework to cover foreign policy analysis, strategic investment, and long-term institutional planning.

Local Council Monitor · England · May 2026
Local Council Monitor · England · May 2026 Baseline

What councils deliver.
Whether residents trust them.

A structured, repeatable framework measuring the governance performance of English local authorities — scored against confirmed statutory data, attributed to the controlling administration, and built to track change over time.

Council reports, regional briefings, and political comparison data available on request
Previous administration record · All 318 councils

Council Scorecard

Region:
Show:
Type:
318 councils shown
Yellow = changed administration  ·  Blue = county (Sub-1+Sub-6 only)
Council Type Outgoing party Incoming party Financial Services LGO Composite Detail
All scores attributed to the outgoing controlling party — this is their governance record. Composite = average of Sub-1 (Financial), Sub-2 (Services), Sub-6 (LGO Ombudsman). 22 county councils: Sub-1 + Sub-6 only — Sub-2 county methodology in development. 13 metrics from statutory sources. Zero estimates. Primary performance comparison: October 2027 (Month 18 post-election). Sources: DLUHC Revenue Outturn 2024-25 · PSAA March 2026 · DLUHC Waste 2024-25 · PINS Q3 2025 · DLUHC HDT 2023 · LGO Annual Review 2024-25.
Confirmed · 296 councils
Sub-1 Financial: S114 status · budget variance · reserves · audit opinion — DLUHC Revenue Outturn 2024-25, PSAA March 2026.

Sub-2 Services: Waste & recycling · planning speed · appeal overturn · housing delivery — DLUHC Waste 2024-25, PINS Q3 2025, HDT 2023.

Sub-6 LGO: Uphold rate · remedy compliance · complaint volume — LGO Annual Review 2024-25.
Partial · 22 county councils
Sub-1 Financial & Sub-6 LGO confirmed for all 22 county councils using the same statutory sources.

Sub-2 Services not yet scored for county councils. Their core functions (adult social care, children's services, highways) require a different methodology. In development.

No composite score until Sub-2 is resolved.
Further analysis

The scorecard is the start

The public data shows what councils deliver against confirmed statutory sources. For councils, researchers, journalists, and organisations that need to go deeper, further analysis is available on request.

Council reports

Governance analysis for specific councils. What the scores reveal indicator by indicator, how the council compares to its peer group, and the precise baseline the current administration has inherited.

Political comparison

How incoming administrations compare to the governance record they inherited. Reform UK's baseline across 11 councils. Green and Lib Dem gains in context. Trend analysis from October 2027.

Regional briefings

All councils in a region compared and ranked. Peer group benchmarking. Finance officer and monitoring officer-ready briefings for councils wanting to understand where they stand relative to comparable authorities.

Request a report or briefing

Tell us which council, region, or question you need answered. We'll confirm what's available and the turnaround.

Local Council Monitor · England · May 2026
Framework

The scoring methodology

Local Council Monitor uses a structured, repeatable framework scored entirely against statutory and independently published sources. No surveys. No estimates. No adjustments for context.

Council reports, regional briefings, and political comparison data available on request

Two pillars. One gap.

Every council receives a Structural Score measuring what it delivers — financial governance, service performance, and accountability — and a Relational Score measuring how residents experience it. The Trust Gap is the distance between the two. In V1.0, only the structural pillar is scored from confirmed statutory sources.

Sub-indicator 1
Financial Governance

Four equally weighted metrics. Financial failure is the clearest leading indicator of council collapse and is measurable before it becomes a crisis.

1.1 Section 114 status — Formal declaration the council cannot balance its budget. Scored 0–100. Source: DLUHC
1.2 In-year budget variance — Overspend or underspend as % of net revenue budget. Source: DLUHC Revenue Outturn 2024-25
1.3 General fund reserves — Usable reserves as % of net revenue budget. Ring-fenced funds excluded. Source: DLUHC Revenue Outturn
1.4 External audit opinion — Independent auditor verdict. Backstop/delayed = 40. Adverse = 0. Source: PSAA March 2026
Sub-indicator 2
Service Delivery

Scored for London boroughs, metropolitan boroughs, unitary authorities, and district councils. County councils — whose service functions differ — are scored separately when methodology is confirmed.

2.1 Waste & recycling — Recycling rate and missed bin collection rate. Source: DLUHC Waste Statistics 2024-25
2.2 Planning performance — Major applications within 13 weeks and appeal overturn rate. Source: DLUHC Planning Stats, PINS Q3 2025
2.3 Housing delivery — Housing Delivery Test result: homes delivered vs local plan requirement. Source: DLUHC HDT 2023
Sub-indicator 6
LGO Ombudsman Signal

The most independently verified sub-indicator. LGO decisions represent external adjudication that councils cannot influence. Source: LGO Annual Review Letters 2024-25.

6.1 Upheld complaint rate — % of investigated complaints upheld. National average ~57%. Below 40% = full marks
6.2 Remedy compliance — % of upheld complaints where council complied with LGO remedy. Non-compliance is a critical signal
6.3 Complaint volume — Complaints reaching LGO per 100,000 population with year-on-year trend adjustment
Score labels
What the numbers mean

All scores are absolute — benchmarked against fixed thresholds, not relative to other councils. A score of 75 means the same thing whether 10 or 300 councils are being scored.

RangeLabel
80–100Exceptional
70–79Strong
60–69Moderate
50–59Weak
40–49Critical
Below 40Fragile

Binding rules

Non-publication penalty
Where a council fails to publish data it is required or expected to publish, the absence is scored at the lowest band. Non-publication is a transparency failure, not a data gap.
Administration-aware scoring
Scores reflect the performance of the outgoing controlling party. Historical failures under previous administrations are captured in the benchmark record but do not affect the current score.
Absolute scaling
All metrics use fixed benchmarks. Scores are not adjusted relative to other councils. A score of 60 means the same thing regardless of dataset composition.
Honeymoon caveat
For councils that changed administration in May 2026, relational scores in the first four quarterly runs are flagged as potentially inflated. Primary performance comparison: October 2027.

Full methodology: Local Council Monitor Methodology V1.0 — May 2026

Local Council Monitor · England · May 2026
About

What Local Council Monitor is

There is no rigorous, independent, repeatable framework for measuring what English councils actually do once they are in control. Local Council Monitor fills that gap.

Council reports, regional briefings, and political comparison data available on request

The problem it solves

Local election analysis in the UK focuses almost entirely on vote share and seat counts. A party can gain councils on a national protest vote and govern them badly. A party can inherit a financial crisis and turn it around. Neither story is told by vote share alone.

Local Council Monitor tells both stories with evidence — scored against confirmed statutory data, attributed to the controlling administration, and built to track change over time.

May 2026 is the primary baseline date. It captures the governance record of administrations going into the local elections on 7 May 2026, and establishes the before-line for administrations taking control after them.

A Trust Gap project

Local Council Monitor is built on the same two-pillar Trust Gap architecture as the national framework at trustgap.org — a Structural Score measuring what the institution delivers, and a Relational Score measuring how people experience it.

The national Trust Gap framework measures this distance across 96 countries. Local Council Monitor applies the same methodology at sub-national level, adapted entirely for local government reality.

Design principles

Equal weighting
No sub-indicator carries more weight than another. Transparency and auditability take precedence over analytical optimisation.
Absolute scaling
Every metric scored against fixed benchmarks, not relative to other councils. A score means the same thing regardless of dataset composition.
Non-publication penalty
Where a council fails to publish data it is required to publish, the absence is scored at the lowest band. Non-publication is a transparency failure.
Politically neutral
The framework measures governance outcomes, not political choices. Its purpose is to hold councils accountable to evidence rather than electoral sentiment.
Zero estimates
Every metric comes from a confirmed statutory or independently published source. Nothing is modelled or inferred.
V1.0 · May 2026

Pilot: 33 London boroughs · Scale: 318 English councils · 13 metrics confirmed · Quarterly update cycle from Q3 2026 · Primary performance comparison window: October 2027

Sample Report · Local Council Monitor · V1.0
Tower Hamlets
London Borough · Aspire (hold) · May 2026 baseline
London Voted May 2026
Composite
64
Moderate
Sub-1 Financial
90
Exceptional
Sub-2 Services
47
Critical
Sub-6 LGO
55
Weak
Key Signals
Biggest Strength — Exceptional Financial Governance
Full analysis in report
Biggest Weakness — Service Delivery 43 Points Below Financial Score
Full analysis in report
Watchpoint — LGO Ombudsman Signal Warrants Monitoring
Full analysis in report
Full report also includes:
Peer group comparison · Political context and inherited baseline · Indicator-level breakdown · Recommendations
Contact

Get in touch

Interested in the full dataset, a country briefing, a methodology discussion, or a custom assessment? We'd like to hear from you.

Country reports

Every assessment produces a structured report with narrative, sub-indicator breakdowns, key signals, recommendations, and a full data provenance table. Available for all 43 scored countries.

Cross-group analysis

Countries across all ten groups can be compared and analysed together. We can produce comparative briefings across G20, EU, ASEAN, GCC, BRICS+, and other groups, or thematic analysis cutting across geography and classification.

Framework methodology

The full specification — methodology, formulas, source requirements, and adjustment protocols — is available for research and institutional partners.