⚠ Migration risk active — Trust Gap exceeds 20 points
Relational Score
27.1
Fragile
Trust Gap
+32.7
Migration risk
Quadrant
Polarised Democracy
Bahrain scores 59.8 (Weak) on the Trust Gap Structural Index and 27.1 (Fragile) on the Relational Index, producing a Trust Gap of +32.7 points. The country is classified in the Polarised Democracy quadrant of the Trust Gap framework. Moderate institutions with significant relational strain. Democratic stress is present. A migration risk flag is active — the Trust Gap exceeds 20 points, placing Bahrain at risk of quadrant migration if current trends continue. The Structural score of 59.8 reflects governance effectiveness, political stability, rule of law, and economic mobility. The Relational score of 27.1 reflects citizen trust in government, social cohesion, media health, and civic participation. The positive Trust Gap of +32.7 points indicates institutional performance materially exceeds the level of public trust — a pattern associated with democratic disengagement risk.
Framework: The Trust Gap V2.1 · Data year: 2025/26 · Sources: World Bank WGI · WJP Rule of Law Index · Transparency International CPI · Edelman Trust Barometer · Reuters Digital News Report · V-Dem · IDEA · Bertelsmann Transformation Index · WEF Global Competitiveness Report · OECD
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