⚠ Migration risk active — Trust Gap exceeds 20 points
Structural Score
32.5
Fragile
Relational Score
11.5
Fragile
Trust Gap
+21.0
Migration risk
Iran scores 32.5 (Fragile) on the Trust Gap Structural Index and 11.5 (Fragile) on the Relational Index, producing a Trust Gap of +21.0 points. The country is classified in the Fragile State quadrant of the Trust Gap framework. Weak institutions and low public trust. Systemic challenges across both pillars. A migration risk flag is active — the Trust Gap exceeds 20 points, placing Iran at risk of quadrant migration if current trends continue. The Structural score of 32.5 reflects governance effectiveness, political stability, rule of law, and economic mobility. The Relational score of 11.5 reflects citizen trust in government, social cohesion, media health, and civic participation. The positive Trust Gap of +21.0 points indicates institutional performance materially exceeds the level of public trust — a pattern associated with democratic disengagement risk.
Framework: The Trust Gap V2.1 · Data year: 2025/26 · Sources: World Bank WGI · WJP Rule of Law Index · Transparency International CPI · Edelman Trust Barometer · Reuters Digital News Report · V-Dem · IDEA · Bertelsmann Transformation Index · WEF Global Competitiveness Report · OECD
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